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GERMAN – Spot eyes 9-month high with wind lull, cold

(Montel) German day-ahead power prices looked set to reach a nine-month high on Wednesday as weather forecasts indicated a slump in wind generation and low temperatures.

Baseload for Thursday last traded on the EEX at EUR 163/MWh, compared with the Wednesday spot delivery of EUR 140.48/MWh. This was also EUR 3 above Thursday’s prior close. A day-ahead contract last settled higher on 13 February.

Average German wind output should tumble almost 15 GW to average less than 5 GW on Thursday, according to Montel Energy Quantified (EQ) data. This is about 16 GW below normal for the time of year.

Latest models showed the trough should reach around 2.5 GWh/h in the early afternoon.

Solar should ease to an average of 1.8 GW, according to EQ. The midday peak should fall by 2 GW to just over 8 GW, or almost 2 GW below normal.  

EQ estimated residual load – the amount of demand not covered by solar and wind – to rise by 15 GW to 57 GW. This is around 21 GW above normal.

Temperatures fall further
Average German temperatures should cool further to -2C on Thursday, about 5C below normal and down from today’s expected average of almost -1C.

Neighbouring France, whose power demand is more responsive to temperatures, should see levels around 1C below normal. French power demand should rise marginally to average almost 64 GW or 2 GW above normal.

French nuclear availability last stood at 45.3 GW, or 74% of capacity. Availability was scheduled to rise slightly to 45.6 GW on Thursday.  

German lignite availability last stood 0.7 GW lower on the day at 15.4 GW, according to the EEX. The last outlook pegged availability to rise to 16.3 GW on Thursday, or 92% of installed capacity.

The following table lists outages affecting plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity on Thursday:

NameInstalled MWFuelOutage StartOutage EndOperator
Neurath G1,060Lignite2023/11/112023/12/06RWE
Heilbronn 7778Hard Coal2023/01/292024/04/30ENBW