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European LNG imports may jump 30% in November – LSEG

(Montel) Northwest European LNG imports could surge by more than 30% on the month in November, to around 243mcm/day, as winter gas demand begins to “kick in”, provisional LSEG estimates showed on Wednesday.

Of the total, around 202mcm/day would be shipped to continental northwest European countries – including the Netherlands, France and Germany – while the remaining 41mcm/day would be earmarked for the UK, the forecasts showed.

However, this would still be down 15% from November last year, when the region was still feverishly importing gas to replenish stocks amid concerns of shortages due to lower Russian exports. Stocks have now reached 99% of capacity ahead of winter.

Wayne Bryan, head of European gas at LSEG, told Montel the projected month-on-month rise in November largely reflected the prospect of heightened gas demand.

“The heating demand kicks in and there are forecasts of colder weather,” he said, adding there would also be some increased import and storage capacity available.

At the same time, European gas prices remained sufficiently elevated to attract cargoes away from the Pacific basin market, he said.

The “slight risk” to this forecast, however, was that there were some signs of slowing supply from Qatar, Bryan said, who noted any reduction would “mostly impact” the UK.

Looking ahead into December, the analyst said much depended on weather developments.

“The weather is the big unknown, and will be key to the development of imports,” he said.