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GERMAN – Spot to plunge 18% as wind output doubles

(Montel) German day-ahead power prices looked set to drop by around 18% on Thursday amid forecasts for wind generation to more than double.

Baseload for Friday was last seen in a bid-ask range of EUR 71.50-73/MWh on the EEX exchange, down from a settlement of EUR 88.70/MWh for power delivered today.

Wind output in Germany should rise from 9.7 GW on average today to 22.4 GW tomorrow, according to forecasts by Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).

That would see the residual load – the amount of demand not covered by wind and solar energy – fall 16.4 GW to 34.8 GW, or 1.3 GW above normal.

Demand looked set to drop 1.9 GW on the day to average 60.4 GW tomorrow, 0.4 GW below normal. German peak demand should ease 1 GW to 70.5 GW.

Warmer weather
Temperatures in Germany should rise 2.8C on the day to average 6.7C on Friday, 5C above normal, according to EQ.

In neighbouring France, temperatures were expected to drop 0.4C to 10.7C, still 5.5C above normal.

Demand was expected at 55.8 GW, 1.9 GW lower on the day.

Meanwhile, lignite availability in Germany tomorrow is set to rise 0.2 GW on the day to 15.8 GW, 89% of operational capacity, according to EEX data.

The following table lists outages affecting plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity on Friday:

NameInstalled MWFuelOutage StartOutage EndOperator
Boxberg Q840Lignite2024/01/202024/02/17Leag
Heilbronn 7778Hard Coal2023/01/292024/05/31ENBW
Walsum 10725Hard Coal2024/02/012024/02/12Steag