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GERMAN – Spot to edge down amid stronger renewables

(Montel) German day-ahead power prices looked set to ease slightly on Monday amid rising renewable output and an uptick in demand.

Baseload for Tuesday was last seen in a bid-ask range of EUR 71.75-73.50/MWh on the EEX. The settlement for Monday power delivery closed at EUR 74.75/MWh.

Wind power generation was expected to rise from 18.8 GW today to an average of 19.9 GW on Tuesday, according to forecasts collated by Montel.

Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) pegged average wind generation at 20 GW but still 2.5 GW below the seasonal average.

Average solar output was expected to rise from 1.5 GW yesterday to 4.1 GW today, with peak generation climbing from 10.6 GW to 16.7 GW. The combined midday wind and solar peak should rise from 30.7 GW to around 40 GW.

Residual load, the amount of demand not covered by wind and solar, was expected to drop 1.9 GW to 36 GW, 0.9 GW above normal, according to EQ.

Average power demand should rise 1.3 GW to 60.7 GW on Tuesday, 1.3 GW below the seasonal average, according to the forecasts. Peak demand looked set to rise 0.9 GW to 70.4 GW.

Lingering mild spell
Average temperatures in Germany were expected to drop 1.7C day on day to average 4.2C, still 2.4C above the seasonal norm.

In neighbouring France, average temperatures were expected to edge up 0.1C to 6.7C, 1.3C above average.

French peak demand was forecast to rise 2 GW to 67.7 GW on Tuesday, while overall demand would average 61.2 GW, 2.1 GW higher on the day, according to EQ.

Meanwhile, German lignite availability was set to increase by 0.6 GW to 15.8 GW, or 89% of operational capacity, data from the EEX showed.

The following table lists outages affecting plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity tomorrow:

NameInstalled MWFuelOutage StartOutage EndOperator
Boxberg Q840Lignite2024/02/172024/02/20Leag
Heilbronn 7778Hard Coal2023/01/292024/05/31ENBW