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GERMAN – Spot power to rise next week as wind output drops

(Montel) German day-ahead power prices looked set to increase by around EUR 4 on average next week as forecasts on Friday pointed to a drop in wind generation.

The front-week baseload contract was last seen at EUR 67.65/MWh on the EEX exchange. By comparison, day-ahead prices for this week were on track to average around EUR 64/MWh, based on exchange settlements and estimates from Montel.

Wind generation could average 19.6 GW next week, below this week’s estimated average of around 27.2 GW and 2.8 GW below normal, according to Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).

Solar power generation should rise from an average 2.4 GW to 3.9 GW, although this would still be 0.8 GW below normal, EQ data showed.

The residual load – the amount of demand not covered by renewable energy – was set to average 34.3 GW, 3.2 GW above normal, compared with this week’s 28.8 GW.

Meanwhile, demand was forecast to average 57.8 GW next week, 0.5 GW below normal and down from an expected average of 58.4 GW for this week.

In neighbouring France, demand should average 57 GW next week, 11.6 GW below normal but up from this week’s 55.7 GW.

Temperatures remain elevated
Temperatures in Germany next week were pegged to drop to 6.4C, still 4.5C above normal but below the expected average of 7C this week.

France should see a similar trend, with temperatures averaging next week at 7.7C, 2.1C above normal but down from 9.4C this week.

Meanwhile, the expected German lignite availability should average 16.1 GW next week, or 90% of the available capacity, up from 88% today, according to EEX data.

The following table lists outages affecting plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity next week:

NameInstalled MWFuelOutage StartOutage EndOperator
Boxberg Q840Lignite2024/02/172024/02/20Leag
Heilbronn 7778Hard Coal2023/01/292024/05/31ENBW