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GERMAN – Spot power eyes EUR 8 gain as wind output drops

(Montel) German day-ahead power prices looked set to jump at least EUR 8 on Wednesday amid a sharp drop in wind generation.

Baseload for Thursday was last seen in a bid-ask range of EUR 87-91.50/MWh on the EEX exchange, compared with the settlement of EUR 79.16/MWh for Wednesday delivery.

Average wind power generation could plummet from 26 GW to 10.6 GW tomorrow, according to forecasts collated by Montel.

Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) pegged average wind generation at 11 GW, 12.3 GW below the seasonal norm.

Average solar generation should edge down 0.4 GW to 1.6 GW, with peak generation falling from 8.6 GW to 7 GW. The combined solar and wind midday peak should sink from 31.4 GW to around 14 GW.

Residual load, the amount of demand not covered by solar and wind energy, was expected to jump 14.2 GW to 50.2 GW, 15.6 GW above average, according to EQ.

Power demand should ease 0.2 GW to 63.1 GW on average tomorrow, 1 GW above normal, with peak demand easing 0.2 GW to 71.3 GW, EQ data showed.

In neighbouring France, peak demand was forecast to drop 2.9 GW to 62.2 GW, with the average demand reaching 56 GW, 2.6 GW lower on the day.

Mild temperatures
Temperatures in France should average 11.2C tomorrow, 1.6C higher on the day and 6.1C above normal.

In Germany, temperatures were expected to drop 1.5C to 3.3C, still 1.7C above average, according to EQ.

Meanwhile, German lignite availability was set to edge down 0.2 GW to 15.8 GW, or 89% of operational capacity, EEX data showed.

The following table lists outages affecting plants of more than 700 MW of installed capacity tomorrow:

NameInstalled MWFuelOutage StartOutage EndOperator
Boxberg Q840Lignite2024/01/202024/02/17Leag
Heilbronn 7778Hard Coal2023/01/292024/05/31ENBW
Walsum 10725Hard Coal2024/02/012024/02/12Steag