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GERMAN – Power curve tests 2021 lows as winter risks subside

(Montel) German power prices continued their recent slide on Monday – with the front year and front month hitting levels their lowest levels since 2021 – as the end of winter loomed.

The benchmark front-year contract was last seen at EUR 73.60/MWh, EUR 0.90 lower on the day. Earlier, it fell to EUR 73.25/MWh, its lowest level since 1 July 2021, extending the 2.5-year lows reached last week.

The front month was last seen down EUR 1.74 on the day at EUR 60.51/MWh after earlier falling to EUR 60/MWh, its lowest point since 5 May 2021.

“People are giving up a little on higher prices,” said one trader. “There’s definitely room to go down.”

A second trader said short-term surprises could see price fluctuations but “for the medium term, we’ve arrived at a floor”.

Traders saw further downside ahead, given that the wrapping up of winter would mean lower temperatures, more solar input and reduced residual load.

Solar power is forecast to rise 1 GW to 5 GW on average tomorrow, 0.5 GW above the seasonal norm. Output could remain around seasonal norms in March, hitting 6.3 GW by the week starting 4 March and 7.6 GW by the week starting 18 March, data from Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) showed.

Average temperatures in Germany were expected to drop 1.7C day on day to average 4.2C, still 2.4C above the seasonal norm, while EQ forecasts showed temperatures should remain around seasonal norms in March, reaching 4.2C for the week starting 4 March and rising to an average 4.4C by the week of 18 March.

Lower spot
On the day-ahead market, baseload power for Tuesday fell EUR 2.52 to EUR 72.23/MWh, while peakload dropped EUR 5.66 to EUR 76.34/MWh amid an expected boost in renewable output.

German wind output should average 19.5 GW tomorrow, 3.1 GW below the norm but up 5.5 GW from today.

Power demand should be 0.8 GW higher tomorrow, at an average 60.1 GW but 2 GW below the seasonal norm.