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SEE POWER – Hungarian curve falls on bearish fundamentals

(Montel) Hungarian power futures fell on Wednesday on the back of unseasonably high temperatures, healthy electricity supply and low gas prices.

The front-quarter power contract lost EUR 1.50 since the previous session's close, and was last seen trading at EUR 67.50/MWh.

The Cal 25 contract recorded a similar decrease, last seen at EUR 84.90/MWh.

The front-month contract recorded a more moderate drop of EUR 0.45, to EUR 74.10/MWh.

The downward trend came on the back of largely bearish fundamentals, including low gas and carbon prices, which have also driven down more liquid markets, such as German power.

“It makes sense for the Hungarian market to move in line with other [more liquid markets] at the moment,” said Emanuel Manov, business consultant at Bulgaria-based Emerging Market Consulting.

“The fact that that we are not experiencing a cold spell, but quite the opposite, combined with the low price level of gas and carbon emissions, is set to keep regional power prices low.”

Manov added that as the Hungarian power curve bottomed out from some fairly low levels last month, he expects limited volatility in the absence of a market-moving event, such as a cold snap or a fresh geopolitical escalation.

Regional fundamentals
Fundamentals in the Balkan region have also been fairly bearish, in line with the rest of Europe.

Water reservoir levels in Romania are set to remain above the seasonal average in the next couple of weeks, according to Montel's Energy Quantified (EQ). They are expected to stand at above 2 TWh, compared to the normal level for this time of year of 1.3 TWh, EQ data showed.

The region is separately experiencing warm temperatures in comparison to seasonal norms, and they are forecast to remain high over the next few days, with no severe cold snaps expected in the near term.

The Balkan region has also been fairly immune to shipping concerns related to the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea, as most of its countries traditionally rely on alternative sources of natural gas supply.